Field of 68 Projection – January 23, 2020

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

 

NCAA Field Projection – January 23, 2020

The 1s: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke

The 2s: San Diego State, West Virginia, Florida State, Seton Hall

The 3s: Dayton, Louisville, Butler, Michigan State

The 4s: Villanova, Maryland, Oregon, Michigan

The 5s: Kentucky, Colorado, Arizona, Auburn

The 6s: Iowa, Wichita State, Penn State, Stanford

The 7s: Ohio State, Creighton, Marquette, Arkansas

The 8s: Wisconsin, Illinois, Texas Tech, Houston

The 9s: Memphis, LSU, Florida, Rutgers

The 10s: Indiana, Purdue, Oklahoma, BYU

The 11s: Minnesota, DePaul, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s (CA), NC State, USC

The 12s: Northern Iowa, Liberty, E. Tennessee State, Yale

The 13s: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Akron, Stephen F. Austin

The 14s: William & Mary, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Belmont

The 15s: Montana, Wright State, UC Irvine, Colgate

The 16s: Monmouth, South Dakota State, Winthrop, St. Francis (PA), Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M

 

 

 

 

Field of 68 Projection – January 19

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

The following is an opinion and guess on where teams would be seeded if the selection was being made today.  A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday!

NCAA Field Projection – January 19, 2020

The 1s: Duke, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga

The 2s: San Diego State, West Virginia, Butler, Seton Hall

The 3s: Dayton, Oregon, Florida State, Michigan State

The 4s: Villanova, Maryland, Auburn, Michigan

The 5s: Kentucky, Colorado, Wichita State, Louisville

The 6s: Creighton, Arizona, Penn State, Stanford

The 7s: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Marquette, Arkansas

The 8s: Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, Houston

The 9s: Illinois, Virginia, BYU, Rutgers

The 10s: Indiana, Memphis, Oklahoma, Florida

The 11s: Xavier, Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s (CA), NC State, USC

The 12s: Northern Iowa, Liberty, E. Tennessee State, Akron

The 13s: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Yale, Stephen F. Austin

The 14s: William & Mary, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Wright State

The 15s: Belmont, Northern Colorado, UC Irvine, Colgate

The 16s: Rider, South Dakota State, Winthrop, St. Francis (PA), Norfolk State, Grambling

 

 

 

 

Field of 68 Projection – January 13

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

The following is an opinion and guess on where teams would be seeded if the selection was being made today.  A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday!

NCAA Field Projection – January 13, 2020

The 1s: Duke, Baylor, Butler, Kansas

The 2s: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Auburn, Michigan State

The 3s: Dayton, Oregon, Louisville, West Virginia

The 4s: Florida State, Villanova, Wichita State, Seton Hall

The 5s: Colorado, Michigan, Maryland, Penn State

The 6s: Texas Tech, Kentucky, Arizona, Ohio State

The 7s: Stanford, Marquette, Creighton, Arkansas

The 8s: Wisconsin, Virginia, Iowa, Houston

The 9s: Xavier, Purdue, BYU, Indiana

The 10s: VCU, Memphis, Florida, St. Mary’s (CA)

The 11s: Illinois, Washington, Tennessee, Georgetown, NC State, Oklahoma

The 12s: Northern Iowa, Liberty, Furman, Yale

The 13s: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Akron, Stephen F. Austin

The 14s: College of Charleston, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Wright State

The 15s: Belmont, Northern Colorado, UC Santa Barbara, Colgate

The 16s: Rider, North Dakota State, Radford, St. Francis (PA), Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M

Who is the Revolving Door of College Basketball

FROM THE VAULT (Written in 2019)

I was at my best friend’s house in early 2019, flipping between college basketball games and I posed the thought to him: which college basketball team has had the most players on their roster since the one and done rule began with the beginning of the 2006 season?

This was a study to find the cumulative number of players on a team’s roster over the past 13 seasons (this post is from the vault and went unpublished until I stumbled upon it again just the other day – the numbers will be off).  In attempting to collect data, I wanted to focus on a certain number of teams to study.  This helped trim down the amount of data to sift through and time spent researching.  A few ideas came to mind when deciding which teams to pick.  With the rise in social media, college basketball players that receive attention are those that attend high-level programs.  Players gaining notoriety because of social media and the connection of the school’s name helped trim the focus of this study to the following schools: Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State.

Another idea that came to mind when deciding which teams to research was to identify teams that consistently made deep runs during the NCAA Tournament.  This was helpful, especially when looking at teams that relied on young talent rather than veteran decision making.  I decided to look at teams that have made it to the Final Four since the 2006-2007 season.  Teams that made the Final Four (that have not already been listed above) include: Villanova, Michigan, Gonzaga, Oregon, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, Wichita State, Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, West Virginia, UCLA, Memphis, Georgetown, Butler.

To focus the data, I’ve grouped all of the teams listed above to teams that share a marriage of popularity in media and consistency in their season’s result year-to-year.  The teams I focused on were Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, and Butler.  The addition of Butler helps compare how much weight a name carries the interest in a college basketball program as well as the ability to maintain a winning tradition.

College with the most players rostered for their school since 2006:

1. Kentucky has had 101 players on their rosters over the last 13 seasons. In that time, they have been in the posted season every year since the one-and-done rule was created.  The only times the Wildcats didn’t make the NCAA tournament were in 2009 and 2013 when they lost to Robert Morris.  They’ve won one championship in this span of time.

2. North Carolina 88 players.  UNC has won two championships during the one-and-done rule, having visited the postseason every year.

2. Kansas has had 85 players on their basketball roster since 2006-2007.

4. Gonzaga 77 players.  The Zags made a deep run in recent years to the final, but have yet to cut down the net as a champion.  Gonzaga comes outside of a power conference, belonging to the West Coast Conference.  They’ve been dominant over the past two decades and it looks like that train will continue chugging away.

3. Duke has had 73 players on the basketball roster since the 2006 – 2007 season.  That means, there is an average turnover of 5.6 players each season for the Blue Devils.  Essentially, a new starting five could be fielded based on that number.  Duke matches their rival Tar Heels in championships won during this period of time (2).

6. Butler 65  Having followed Butler closely since the 1997-1998 season, it’s common to see their players stick around for four years, finishing with their degree.

This little research endeavor was fun and brought about a few more questions that can be debated.  Is bringing in highly touted recruits the best route for a school to see better results?  Does building a culture and bringing players that fit a team help with achieving or overachieving?

NCAA Field Projection – January 8, 2020

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

The following is an opinion and guess on where teams would be seeded if the selection was being made today.  A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday!

As I reviewed the field I published earlier this month, I found some questionable placements of teams on different seed lines.  It has also been an odd couple of weeks with the way different teams are trending.

Trending Down

Ohio State seems to have hit a hiccup.  They’ve been without Kyle Young, but he isn’t the fix for all of the problems they’ve run into.  The Buckeyes travel to Indiana next and both teams desperately need a win.

Virginia continues to trend down after dropping an abysmal game to Boston College.  Although ranked first in defense, the Cavaliers have an uphill battle in finding an offense.  Their elite defense will keep them in most games, but I’m sold that they’ll be able to finish games.  Bold prediction, Virginia will finish with no more than 10 wins in conference play.

North Carolina has fallen a few tiers below where they normally reside in the college basketball sphere.  A stretch of four losses, including one to Wofford at home began to raise questions about this year’s team.  A loss at home to Georgia Tech, a game in which they allowed a 27-4 run to start the game was not a welcoming way to begin 2020.  The last time the Tar Heels lost to Georgia Tech at home was January 16th, 2010.

On the Up and Up

Wisconsin has strung together a couple of great road wins at both Tennessee and Ohio State.  The Badgers must continue protecting home court and steal a few more wins, but I think they have a case for safely being in the field come March.

After losing two games in mid-December, Seton Hall has looked the part of a contender to win the Big East.  A loss to Rutgers that has aged well considering how their season is going coupled with a loss to Iowa State saw Seton Hall rebound with wins over Georgetown, DePaul, Prairie View A&M, and Maryland.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights, hailing from Piscataway, New Jersey, is slowly but surely putting together one of their best seasons in decades.  Wins over Wisconsin, Seton Hall, and Penn State and a 3-1 start to the Big Ten conference play surely will see Rutgers in contention to make the NCAA Tournament this year.  A few great tests are coming with a road trip to Illinois and a brief home stint against Indiana followed by Minnesota.  It’s imperative they win at least two of these games to continue to remain relevant for at-large consideration.

NCAA Field Projection – January 8, 2020

The 1s: Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor

The 2s: Butler, San Diego State, Auburn, Oregon

The 3s: Florida State, Louisville, Michigan State, West Virginia

The 4s: Maryland, Dayton, Michigan, Villanova

The 5s: Colorado, Ohio State, Wichita State, Penn State

The 6s: Texas Tech, Kentucky, Arizona, Seton Hall

The 7s: Stanford, Marquette, Creighton, Memphis

The 8s: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Virginia, Xavier

The 9s: Iowa, Houston, BYU, St. Mary’s (CA)

The 10s: VCU, Purdue, Florida, Indiana

The 11s: Oklahoma State, Washington, Tennessee, Georgetown, NC State, Oklahoma

The 12s: Northern Iowa, Liberty, Furman, Yale

The 13s: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Akron, Stephen F. Austin

The 14s: College of Charleston, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Wright State

The 15s: Belmont, Northern Colorado, UC Irvine, Colgate

The 16s: Rider, North Dakota State, Radford, St. Francis (PA), Bethune-Cookman, Prairie View A&M

NCAA Field Projection – January 5, 2020

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

The following is an opinion and guess on where teams would be seeded if the selection was being made today.  A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday!

NCAA Field Projection – January 5, 2020

The 1s: Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke, Auburn

The 2s: Oregon, Baylor, Butler, San Diego State

The 3s: Louisville, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan

The 4s: West Virginia, Michigan State, Villanova, Maryland

The 5s: Colorado, Dayton, Memphis, Penn State

The 6s: Wichita State, Iowa, Kentucky, Arizona

The 7s: Virginia, Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton

The 8s: Texas Tech, Arkansas, Indiana, St. Mary’s (CA)

The 9s: Xavier, Washington, Utah State, Stanford

The 10s: BYU, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Wisconsin

The 11s: Purdue, Houston, Tennessee, Florda, NC State, Oklahoma

The 12s: Northern Iowa, Liberty, ETSU, Yale

The 13s: Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Akron, Stephen F. Austin

The 14s: Belmont, Georgia State, New Mexico State, Wright State

The 15s: Delaware, Eastern Washington, UC Irvine, Colgate

The 16s: Rider, Oral Roberts, Radford, St. Francis (PA), Bethune-Cookman, Prairie View A&M

2019-2020 College Basketball Update

Happy New Year!  In the following post, I skim highlights from the first two months of the 2019-2020 college basketball season and preview my thoughts on how the Big East will shake out during conference play.

Before I do that, I just want to share a quick update about why I haven’t posted during the current college basketball season as of yet.  As much as I enjoy watching, dissecting, and analyzing college basketball, I realized I was applying so much unnecessary pressure and expectation on myself.  In fact, I’ve been doing that for years.  I believe we all do that to a degree, but it had gotten to an unhealthy level.  I wasn’t allowing myself to be human by making mistakes.  I’ve been working on it and I’m doing much better!  I am good enough and so are you!  That’s something everyone should be able to tell themselves!  Those three words will influence portions of my thoughts for certain teams for the remainder of this season.  I’m happy to write and look forward to the remainder of the regular season, tournament week, and the madness that the NCAA basketball tournament brings year over year.

This season’s NCAA tournament is ripe for unpredictable outcomes, namely because of what we’ve been witness to for the first two months of the season.  Here are a few highlights since the start of this season in November last year:

  • Six different teams have made claim to being the number one team in the nation during the first eight weeks.
  • According to Ken Pomeroy’s site at the time I’m writing this, notable drops in rank for major conferences teams include:
    • North Carolina was ranked sixth in the nation (Kenpom.com uses data from the prior season based on the current players on the roster to determine projected outcome) and have fallen forty-one spots to 47th overall.
    • Tennessee was ranked 20th and have fallen to 45th overall.  Their drop, compared to others, is relatively small and makes sense after loosing their core group of scorers to the NBA or graduation.
    • Providence fell from 30th to 72nd overall.  This is a head scratcher because Ed Cooley had taken his Friar teams to at least six trips to post season (NCAA or NIT).
    • Texas A&M, a team coached by Buzz Williams, has dropped 113 spots.  After starting 58th in kenpom’s rankings, they now sit at 171st.  The Aggies are dead last in three-point shooting percentage, hitting 23.5% from beyond the arc.
  • Maine traveled to Hawaii for a game in which they got run off the floor.  That’s the longest distance from east to west in the United States that two teams could play.  Thanks to The Eye on College Basketball podcast for that funny stat.  Imagine 10,000+ miles of travel to lose by that much.
  • One of the more memorable upsets of the season came with Stephen F. Austin traveled to Duke and won on a last second layup.  I’ll argue an even more unlikely result occurred on New Years Eve where Florida A&M traveled to Iowa State and left with a victory.  It was the Rattlers second win of the season.  They are currently sitting at a 2-9 record, haven’t played a home game yet and won’t until January 6th!  They play in the worst conference, the MEAC and took down a Big 12 opponent on their own floor!
  • Iona has played the fewest game of any team this season, wrapping up the end of 2019 having only played 7 games.  The Gaels played 4 games in November and 3 games in December!
  • New Orleans has won four games this season.  Those four wins have only come against non-division I teams.

There have been some other teams that have had bizarre seasons relative to expectations prior to the season starting.  After losing by 2 to Saint Mary’s to start the season, the Wisconsin Badgers have had an up and down season of learning.  It looks like they’re putting things together as of late after recently upsetting Ohio State.  Most significant for the Badgers in the win is that it came at OSU.  The Badgers have struggled to play well away from home.  I think a lot of people wrote the Badgers off with what happened during the early portion of the season.  As Big Ten conference play continues, it will still be difficult to predict outcomes for Wisconsin as they haven’t been consistent.  As of right now, I have the Badgers in the NCAA tournament as a 10 seed.

Another team that has far exceed preseason expectations is the Butler Bulldogs.  After being picked to finish eighth in the conference, the Bulldogs currently sit at 4 in the NET and the predictive analytics like the Bulldogs the rest of the way.  I think there will be a dip for the Bulldogs in Big East play.  They squandered a 23 point lead at St. John’s.  Today’s contest against Creighton will be a good test in a home environment.  Creighton plays the quickest pace of the Big East teams.  The Bulldogs will need the practice because they enjoy setting up in the half court offense.

In my next couple posts, I will share my first bracket prediction based on the results this season as well as give predictions to how some of the major conferences will shake out during conference play.

Happy New Year!

NCAA Field Projection – March 17, 2019 Selection Sunday, Final

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

Final NCAA Field Projection – March 17, 2019

The 1s: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina

The 2s: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan

The 3s: Houston, LSU, Florida State, Texas Tech

The 4s: Purdue, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas State

The 5s: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Villanova Mississippi State

The 6s: Marquette, Iowa State, Buffalo, Maryland

The 7s: Cincinnati, Nevada, Wofford, Louisville

The 8s: Iowa, Central Florida, Seton Hall, Minnesota

The 9s: Mississippi, Utah State, Washington, Syracuse

The 10s: Baylor, Oklahoma, VCU, Florida

The 11s: TCU, Arizona State, Ohio State, Temple, St. John’s, St. Mary’s

The 12s: Oregon, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty

The 13s: UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern, Saint Louis

The 14s: Old Dominion, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky

The 15s: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Abilene Christian

The 16s: Gardner-Webb, Iona, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

 

NCAA Field Projection – March 13, 2019

My bracket is part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other great brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

NCAA Field Projection – March 13, 2019, 11:00am

The 1s: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke

The 2s: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Michigan

The 3s: LSU, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue

The 4s: Kansas, Florida State, Kansas State, Wisconsin

The 5s: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Marquette, Mississippi State

The 6s: Villanova, Buffalo, Auburn, Nevada

The 7s: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Louisville, Wofford

The 8s: Central Florida, VCU, Iowa, Oklahoma

The 9s: Baylor, Mississippi, Washington, Syracuse

The 10s: Utah State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, St. John’s

The 11s: TCU, NC State, Florida, Arizona State, Temple

The 12s: Clemson, Ohio State, St. Mary’s, Murray State, New Mexico State

The 13s: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Old Dominion

The 14s: Northeastern, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky

The 15s: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Gardner-Webb

The 16s: Sam Houston State, Iona, Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Dakota State

Considering: Texas, Indiana, Creighton, Belmont

NCAA Field Projection – March 8, 2019, 7:00pm

Balancing grading, coaching, and being sick has pushed bracketology to the back burner for the past week.  As I find a healthy balance and recover, I will be more consistent in my NCAA field projection.  Due to my absence, enjoy a Friday evening bracketology update!  I will do my best to update frequently as we have already begun Championship Week!

My bracket will be part of the The Bracket Project’s website along with many other brackets that college basketball fans are part of.  Link to The Bracket Project

NCAA Field Projection – March 8, 2019, 7:00pm

The 1s: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky

The 2s: Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State

The 3s: LSU, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue

The 4s: Kansas, Florida State, Kansas State, Wisconsin

The 5s: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi State

The 6s: Villanova, Buffalo, Cincinatti, Nevada

The 7s: Iowa State, Auburn, Louisville, Wofford

The 8s: Iowa, Washington, Central Florida, Baylor

The 9s: Oklahoma, Syracuse, VCU, Mississippi

The 10s: Texas, Minnesota, Utah State, St. John’s

The 11s: Ohio State, Florida, North Carolina State, Seton Hall

The 12s: TCU, Alabama, Arizona State, Temple, Lipscomb, Belmont

The 13s: New Mexico State, Hofstra, Old Dominion, Vermont

The 14s: Yale, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Texas State

The 15s: Northern Kentucky, Radford, Loyola-Chicago, Montana

The 16s: Colgate, Sam Houston State, Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, Iona, Saint Francis (PA)

Considering: Clemson, Indiana, Creighton, Murray State